Showdown: London 2026 - Dorinthea (SAGE)

Dorinthea

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jason Rolfe

9th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.09
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.92
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.18
R9	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Nathan Hills

15th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Patryk Rokicki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tiago Paulo (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winning (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Riccardo Bonfiglioli (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.74
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Guillermo Regueiro

31st • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs David Alfonso (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Finlay Freir (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jaka Burnik (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.41
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.63
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.79
R8	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Fredrik Bill

37th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs cory macewan (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Manferdini (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Christian Jelle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.80
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.85
R9	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

George Jones

43rd • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ernst Füllemann (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Miw Valle (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs James Clark (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs THOMAS CORTICELLI (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.11
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.85
R9	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jack Mountford

57th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paul Crame (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Erika Forslöf (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Sobral (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Mike Williams (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.02
R9	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Davide Quaglio

59th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Bastian Henneberg (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.70
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.26

George Turner

106th • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Chris Willis (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.26

Kevin Sharpes

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Phil Mead (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Raj Parikh (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Potter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.13
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.22
R8	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Andrew Irvine

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Italo Molina (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.15
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.68
R7	Silver Age	Florian	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

João Gonçalo Silva

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tobias Lee (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tiago Paulo (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Anton Cid Mejias

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adam Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Campagnoli (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Finn Baird (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.03
R5	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Will Melyn

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Paulo (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tim Edwards (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Cheyney (Enigma) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.21
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Marko Martic

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Parry (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Austin De Young (Oldhim) - Expected: 87:13

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Hove (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Shahmir Samee

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Kayo) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jakub Koenner

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mark Warren (Pleiades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Laura Nielsen (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Pleiades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alex Chițu

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Italo Molina (Fai) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Chevrinais (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Chris Willis

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs George Turner (Dorinthea) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marnie Lamb (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oliver Wilson

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 84:16, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	85%	Loss	✓	0.84	-
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.