Showdown: London 2026 - Pleiades (SAGE)

Pleiades

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Warren

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Hodkinson (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Luca Cornaggia (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Krzysztof Nowek (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Louis Ades

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Briar) - Expected: 25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chad Heuschober (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Knapp

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Zach Evans (Briar) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (0.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.