Florian at Showdown: London 2026

Florian

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Noah Dreckmann

38th • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Laurens Overgaauw (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emma Rumsey (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Julian Flury (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.12
R5	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.09
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.31
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R9	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Denis Medjic

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mehmet Huseyin (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marc Bonnet (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

10:90

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.53
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Daja Todesco

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Nichols (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Adam Cowan

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.