Showdown: London 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Trossing

17th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marc Lanigra (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Damien Bouché (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

Daniel Papež

39th • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Fai) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs TCGTed Grabow (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.50
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.20
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Konrad Weiss

81st • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs cory macewan (Fai) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Vaux (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: 23:77

35:65

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R6	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.47

John Zapata

82nd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ugo Troenli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.28
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Michael de Kok

94th • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.93
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Siméon Gruel

102nd • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patryk Rokicki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: 45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.47
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.58
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.90
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Georg Sossnowetz

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Damien Bouché

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kieran Waters (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thibaud ROMANI (Riptide) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Declan Macewan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shaheen Khoursheed (Dromai) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs João Gonçalo Silva (Dorinthea) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.63
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Ivan Grimaldo

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Sebastian Sommer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Matthew Sarrington

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs alessandro scarnato (Enigma) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.