Iyslander at Showdown: London 2026

Iyslander

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Trossing

17th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marc Lanigra (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Damien Bouché (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.48
R8	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R9	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Daniel Papež

39th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Fai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs TCGTed Grabow (Viserai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Dimitrios Stergiou (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Gary Kelly (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Viserai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Konrad Weiss

81st • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs cory macewan (Fai) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Andrea Migliavacca (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Vaux (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Vlad Ciobotea (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alejandro López Lao (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dalton Harmsen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

John Zapata

82nd • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ugo Troenli (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Mountford (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Simon Denning (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.61

Michael de Kok

94th • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yehor Zhukovskyi (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Watt (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Irvine (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Spencer Baker (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Silver Age	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Siméon Gruel

102nd • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Steven O'Reilly (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Patryk Rokicki (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Adam Cartwright (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Curnow (Kayo) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Peter Søndergaard Hald (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Parker (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.70
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Georg Sossnowetz

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Kruft (Oldhim) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Damien Bouché

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kieran Waters (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thibaud ROMANI (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Declan Macewan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shaheen Khoursheed (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Turner (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs João Gonçalo Silva (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.76
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Ivan Grimaldo

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs James Goode-Hamy (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Sebastian Sommer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Dominik Ixert (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Matthew Sarrington

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Warren (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs alessandro scarnato (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.