Ira, Crimson Haze at Showdown: London 2026

Ira, Crimson Haze

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tom Escoffier

12th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marko Antonic (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pietro Gerletti (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lukasz Ziemba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tibor Madaras (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Torbert (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.40
R6	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.10
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R9	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Ian Zhang

55th • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Denis Medjic (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Paul Hyman (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jonathan DUMONT (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.17
R9	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.31

Dominik Ixert

61st • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Adam Sarrington (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Holík (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Grevet (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Jackson (Levia) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Michael Lackner (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Levia	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.17
R9	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

Paul Hyman

63rd • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Ian Zhang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Tom Ward (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.32
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.31
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Tobias Lee

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs João Gonçalo Silva (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Greg Nichols (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kai Martin (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs James Flynn (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Malyk Höfle (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs André Kofmel (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Nicolas Mazeyrac (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.24
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

David Alfonso

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Maxime Forest (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Guillermo Regueiro (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Darius Zacharakis (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Larsen (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Pierre-André Joly

dropped • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tanel Tammiste (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Siewko (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Thibaud ROMANI (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Wassim Bouzazi (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Adam Hove

dropped • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs David Gómez (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Theo Mussy (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christian Jelle

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

95:5

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Edward Bayford (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Fredrik Bill (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jack Warren

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Clément Maillet (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marko Martic (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Piergiorgio Villani

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul van Gijssel ()

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joscha Amann (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Quest Pittman (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Josh Keys

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs René Schep (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Ritter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Folch (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Tanel Tammiste

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-André Joly (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adam Cowan (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aria Loog (Azalea) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Stefan Hilderink

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Giacomo Aloisio ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Patrik Koller (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pauli Viimaranta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Arthur Trehet (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Walter Heidelberger

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexej Vollmer (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Matheo Franchot (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Emad Kashy (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.21
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jason Kelly

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Neseyif-Deakin (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Schmidt (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Carreira (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Lorente (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patryk Rokicki

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Dorinthea) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Milan Pěkný (Enigma) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Siméon Gruel (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs cory macewan (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Brandon Turner

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Danny Feliz (Olympia) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Owen Howdon (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Glenn Rosario II

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Thang (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Joonas Ervald (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Ugo Troenli

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Ritter (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tov Hanssen (Fai) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Zapata (Iyslander) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

David Hopkins

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vulpe Razvan (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Massimo Castelli (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.