Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.2
Surp
3.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Win vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Win vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Winson Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
17th • 5-2-0
14%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
4.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Round 4: Win vs Eli Barila (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
Round 6: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Will Freeman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
19th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.8
Surp
4.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Win vs Spencer Chase (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Dailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
34th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Lai (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Khoi Tu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Chris Donati (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 30% | Loss |
38th • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
Round 2: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
Round 5: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
52nd • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None ()
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Loss vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs James Thietz (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Win | |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
61st • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dean Carr (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jason Ginn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Will Stubbs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Lule (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Win vs Celina Zhang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Khoi Tu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Corey Harris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Round 4: Loss vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eli Barila (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.