Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nicholas Flavin

5th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Clayton Bucholz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.21
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.29
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Justin Oursler

10th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vlad Kokhanevich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sage Freiri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.45
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.74
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chris Donati

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Daugherty (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sage Freiri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.87
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.28
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Phillip martinez

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Travonte Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.