Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Angelica Semenec (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
35th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Tabarejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jackson Yang ()
Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | 50% | Win | |
| R3 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
39th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Win vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ian Tayag (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26
Round 6: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
48th • 3-3-1
43%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jay Ward (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alexandar Shi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 78:22
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Donati (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Draw |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Loss |
51st • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tiu (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Peanut Dockins (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 75% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Griesser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
Round 2: Win vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Derek Cockrell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.