Kassai of the Golden Sand at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

Kassai of the Golden Sand

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

Dash I/O

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peanut Dockins (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Cockrell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dean Carr (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.