Dash I/O at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Dash I/O
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Spencer Chase (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colin Marshall ()
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Vyas Kepler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R2 | 50% | Win | |
| R3 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
18th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Will Freeman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Winson Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 5: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 6: Win vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
21st • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Zoe Daniels (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Round 4: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Vyas Kepler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
32nd • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jay Ward (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Colin Marshall ()
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon Lule (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Round 5: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Clayton Bucholz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 7: Loss vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | 50% | Win | |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
54th • 3-3-1
57%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jose Moreno (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Conner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jackson Flint (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Draw |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
63rd • 1-6-0
86%
Meta
-3.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
0.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Chase (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs None ()
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | 50% | Win | |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Will Freeman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Blaine Morry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Round 4: Loss vs Nick Yaksich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jackson Flint (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Will Stubbs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jackson Flint (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Colin Marshall ()
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Keaton Landenberger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Alexandar Shi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 50% | Loss | |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Luke Putz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.