Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
50%
Meta
+4.0
Perf
5.1
Surp
5.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Putz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Parker Pemberton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
Round 10: Win vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (5/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Win |
5th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dean Carr (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Dailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Loss |
5th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luke Leonard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eli Barila (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
Round 4: Win vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
40th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Winson Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vlad Kokhanevich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Leonard (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
53rd • 3-3-1
71%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Angelica Semenec (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peanut Dockins (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Keaton Landenberger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Travonte Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dean Carr (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Draw |
| R6 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35
Round 4: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luke Putz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jackson Flint (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.