Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Winson Lee

11th • 5-1-1

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Thietz (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Vyas Kepler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.24
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.95
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Blaine Morry

50th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jose Moreno (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Andrew Daugherty

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bailey Kehret (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs sean Burke (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Donati (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Parker Pemberton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Alexandar Shi

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Clayton Bucholz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Xavier Montoya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Christopher Hoang

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Salvador Morales ()

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R2	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.