Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at Battle Hardened: Sonoma

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Buddensiek

3rd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.16
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.63
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.73
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

John Cooper

9th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peanut Dockins (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Donati (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Winson Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Joshua Westbrook

20th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nelson Lagat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Tayag (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Moreno (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Angelica Semenec (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Michael Dailey

30th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Thietz (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Clayton Bucholz (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wesley Osorio

31st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.94
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Karan Gill

36th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Kuhn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.40

Brishen Jaimes

44th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phillip martinez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.36
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.61
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Ryno Myburgh

55th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Thietz (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jose Moreno (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Clayton Bucholz

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandar Shi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Melora Cayce (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bailey Kehret (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Kuhn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.19
R6	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Derek Cockrell

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Avila (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zoe Daniels (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.55
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Khoi Tu

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hunter Pemberton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sage Freiri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nelson Lagat

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brishen Jaimes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Minh Tran (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Luke Putz

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah House (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vyas Kepler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Vlad Kokhanevich

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corey Harris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.