Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
22nd • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Celina Zhang (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Alejandro Gonzalez-Lara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.