Marlynn, Treasure Hunter at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Taylor

27th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cory Schmitt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Kuhn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Coyle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathon Weiss

33rd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eli Barila (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sammy Ha (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Dailey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.68
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.53
R7	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Phil Hensley

42nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexandar Shi (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travonte Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ian Tayag (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Blaine Morry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Peanut Dockins

dropped • 0-5-0

20%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zoe Daniels (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Tabarejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Celina Zhang

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hunter Pemberton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.