Puffin, Hightail at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anthony Pham

23rd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Yaksich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Dastas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Conner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sage Freiri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Joshua Villarreal

45th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nelson Lagat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 47:53

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Melora Cayce (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Will Freeman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dean Carr (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.42
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Cory Schmitt

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Neet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeremiah House (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vyas Kepler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.75
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.