Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Hunter Pemberton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.