Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Parker Pemberton

28th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Keaton Landenberger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jay Ward (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Daugherty (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dean Carr (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Bryce Platz

57th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zavier Grech (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joshua Conner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jason Ginn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Ethan Tabarejo

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jesse Perkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Peanut Dockins (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Travonte Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.55
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Steven Leyva

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Morry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Will Freeman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.16
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.54
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.00
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Nick Yaksich

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alejandro Gonzalez-Lara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sammy Ha (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Aidan Davis

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Harechmak ()

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R2	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.