Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andy Valenuzela

47th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xavier Montoya (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Angelica Semenec (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Joshua Conner

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Oldes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Ginn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Thietz (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.74
R6	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Spencer Chase

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Rutkowski (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Will Stubbs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.65

Jacob Dastas

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jackson Flint (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Archie Zackery (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.