Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
33%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Melora Cayce (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Josh Lind (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mark Taylor (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 7: Win vs Mars Wang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
16th • 5-2-0
57%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremiah House (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Conner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 81:19
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joshua Westbrook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 7: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
46th • 3-3-1
29%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Phillip martinez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Angelica Semenec (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Marshall ()
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | 50% | Win | |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Draw |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Westbrook (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs None ()
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Phil Hensley (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | 50% | Win | |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Tayag (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 81:19
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Keaton Landenberger (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 68:32
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Lule (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.