Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Will Freeman

29th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.34
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.75
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.81
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Joshua Brooke

60th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Khoi Tu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Stubbs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.79
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Casey Russell

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Tayag (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.