Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Will Freeman

29th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Garcia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leo Galbraith (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Villarreal (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.52
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Joshua Brooke

60th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Khoi Tu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Will Stubbs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.77
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Casey Russell

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Koehler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Tayag (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.