Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Birkan Gokbag

59th • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Will Stubbs (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Khoi Tu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Brooke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Blaine Morry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.98
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Brandon Lule

dropped • 2-1-1

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hunter Pemberton (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamen Vedova (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Kuhn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Draw	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

James Koehler

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Blaine Morry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

sean Burke

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Melora Cayce (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Daugherty (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.