Jarl Vetreiði at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
37th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Birkan Gokbag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Billal Mahmoud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sage Freiri (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Winson Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Sean Kongsle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Brishen Jaimes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
49th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Gomez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michael Lawton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Thietz (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 7: Loss vs Karan Gill (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
56th • 2-4-1
57%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Neet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathon Weiss (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 44:56
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Jason Ginn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Angelica Semenec (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 65% | Draw |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Khoi Tu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nate Peters (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.