Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Oldes

12th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Conner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alejandro Gonzalez-Lara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Taotao Chu

41st • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.89
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Christopher Gomez

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vlad Kokhanevich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.