Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Oldes

12th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Conner (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edward Kimble (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alejandro Gonzalez-Lara (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Schmitt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alvin Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Franche Tan (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.25
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Taotao Chu

41st • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Griesser (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Perkins (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andy Valenuzela (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.31
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.87
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Christopher Gomez

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vlad Kokhanevich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.