Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Minh Tran

25th • 5-1-1

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Kuhn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.65
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Billal Mahmoud

43rd • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sammy Ha (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.30
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Nick Rutkowski

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 23:77

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Chase (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Donati (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.