Battle Hardened: Sonoma 2025 - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Minh Tran

25th • 5-1-1

86%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Daniel Brouillet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Natasha Yocum (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryno Myburgh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nelson Lagat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Kuhn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Draw	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.24
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.39

Billal Mahmoud

43rd • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sammy Ha (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Tabarejo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Allison Shelton (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Oursler (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Wesley Osorio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Suryan Bhatia (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.32
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Nick Rutkowski

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryce Platz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Goss (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 21:79

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Spencer Chase (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Donati (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.