Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at Calling: Kansas City 2025
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
61 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 13-2-0
73%
Meta
+5.5
Perf
6.9
Surp
6.9
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jason Willhite (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Cody Williams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 14: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Win vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
73% (11/15 favorable matchups)
Performance
+5.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 13 actual)
Surprise
6.9 total deviation
Difficulty
6.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
2nd • 12-3-0
67%
Meta
+4.0
Perf
6.5
Surp
5.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alain Arduain (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Randy Davis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Round 11: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Round 13: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R15 CC
Round 15: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (10/15 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 12 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R13 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R14 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R15 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
5th • 10-3-0
46%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
6.7
Surp
6.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Katherine Merwin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steven Cawyer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Win vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Round 10: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Cody Williams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 12: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
46% (6/13 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
6.7 total deviation
Difficulty
6.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R13 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 9-2-1
75%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dawson Belk (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs William Marshall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler Wolford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrew Loberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 8: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Shane Martin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 9-2-1
58%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Owen Bitting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Shawn Walker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs David Bruner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Griffin Meyers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 9-3-0
33%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
6.5
Surp
5.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mason Herschberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Round 6: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Daniel Edwards (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 8: Win vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 9: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
Round 12: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
6.5 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
dropped • 9-3-0
75%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
5.6
Surp
4.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jameon Delp (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Lee (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tho Bui (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christian Ybarra (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Cody Williams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Randy Davis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
dropped • 9-3-0
67%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
5.8
Surp
4.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Bruner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jacques Carlson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 8-3-1
58%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
6.1
Surp
4.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Adam Roark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Warner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
6.3
Surp
4.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs brynn nieboer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Round 2: Win vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs jordan johnson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Liwag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Round 11: Loss vs Randy Davis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 12: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
dropped • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
5.8
Surp
3.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Round 4: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kyle Wright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Randy Davis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32
Round 8: Win vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tho Bui (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Carlos Romero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
5.9
Surp
3.9
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Dandikar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Asa Burke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
Round 3: Loss vs Shane Martin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Win vs Payne Ummerteskee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 7: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Round 10: Win vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 11: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 8-4-0
58%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
5.5
Surp
4.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Asa Burke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Win vs Ashlyn Carrick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Nick Tucker (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Park (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
dropped • 8-4-0
67%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
6.2
Surp
4.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Tucker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Round 7: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Tho Bui (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
5.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Kolby Daily (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mike Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs nicklas starland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs David Bruner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Round 8: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 9: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Luke Hillard (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 6-4-0
60%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
4.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ashlyn Carrick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs Noah Fogle (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Chandler To (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Park (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
60% (6/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
33%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Berg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Round 5: Win vs John Bracken (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Round 7: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-1
71%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ethan Gill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jack Sweeney (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Win vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Draw |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Shane Martin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Fraser (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Win vs Sophia Claire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Moss (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Win vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Johnathan Carrillo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacques Carlson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 7: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Larry Durham (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Kolb (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacques Carlson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Karl Kraemer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Aidan Kwasneski (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Riley Akers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Shehan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Meyers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs DJ Breithaupt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Drew Carrick (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37
Round 6: Win vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ender Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Paul White (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Keenan Humphrey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Round 6: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Gomez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Landon Lord (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Steven Cawyer (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 7: Win vs John Miranda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-1
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Draw |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Heffley (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chase Feaster (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Fraser (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chase Reiser (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Skylar Kilgore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Win vs douglas ward (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Round 7: Win vs Roger Price (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-1
57%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Win vs Roger Price (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Christopher Shehan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Draw |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Scott Cook (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Roark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Ford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tamren Cardwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Ybarra (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Beihn (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs douglas ward (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marc Hansen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs David Taylor (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
Round 4: Win vs Noah Fogle (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jarron Idleman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marc Hansen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mason Herschberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Arivae Chol (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Willhite (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Hook (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Burnett (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
Round 2: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryan Kelly (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Loss vs Kyle Wright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-1
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Trenton McBride (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kamerin Points (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-1
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Abel Marquez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Dan Eckstein (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Wesley Dong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Chen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Draw |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryan Heffley (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Round 4: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Parker Lahann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marc Hansen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs DJ Breithaupt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Juan Gutierrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Johnathan Carrillo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Grant Emery (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexander Heger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Wolford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Lucero (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Noah Ford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Perry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Brock (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Kammeyer (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ismael Duque (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Amber Pennington (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joe Sturwold (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Win vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gage Gilliam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Serpa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 68:32
Round 2: Win vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
80%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jameon Delp (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Spencer Orman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Garrett Rayburn (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Julio Vazquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Draw |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Austin Ryan (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Loss vs Jack Sweeney (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
20%
Meta
-2.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Bracken (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ajit Perla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kolby Daily (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Leia Asp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-1
75%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ethan Gill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Codi Barnett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Owen Bitting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Logan Reinert (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Casey Schiller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Collin Cromwell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Illuvial Arnett (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jarron Idleman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Trent Willman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 21:79
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Roger Price (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.