Prism, Awakener of Sol at Calling: Kansas City 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Elaine Cao

5th • 10-3-0

85%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Codi Barnett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

85% (11/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.07
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.10
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.08
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.11
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.45
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.82
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.59
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.68
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Ryan Mound

dropped • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

5.0

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dawson Belk (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tho Bui (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

85:15

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.18
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Benjamin Andrews

dropped • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

5.7

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ethan Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Kevin Murphy

dropped • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trent Willman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julio Vazquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nick Webb (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.31
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.62
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.86
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

May Hayden

dropped • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Young (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chase Feaster (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Bracken (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Micheal Porter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Austin Redington (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.53
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.87
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Lucas Birch

dropped • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Parker Lahann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Elliott (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.09
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.20
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.46
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.49
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.67
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Reuben An

dropped • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs AJ Stouse (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Raley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Lawton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Anthony Hook (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.54
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Adam Fronsee

dropped • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Cook (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trenton McBride (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Logan King (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.47
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-

Jason Willhite

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kolby Daily (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Riley Lont (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Spencer Orman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Garrett Rayburn (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.62
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Trevor Galligan

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hasan Abdali (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Riley Lont (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.71
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

John Bracken

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ovidio Trejo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trace Winborn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Grant Rockefeller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jamie Foster

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Dayton Blair

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leia Asp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.73
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Gabriel Kammeyer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.1

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.05
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.