Calling: Kansas City 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Addison Woodward-Parrish

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Grant Emery (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ajit Perla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.48
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Andrew Loberg

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Hillard (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tony Stobbe (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs David Bruner (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.47
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Adrian Gebhart

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Milner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shane Martin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Grant Rockefeller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Park (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

AJ Stouse

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kamerin Points (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brendan Keithline (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 80:20

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 14:86

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.19
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Maddux Warren

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Andrews (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.31
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.