Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Calling: Kansas City 2025

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jesse Harper

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Gomez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.33
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.39
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Landon Lord

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Riley Akers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Casey Schiller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul White (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Derrick Schwarz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.28
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.82	2.11
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Steven Cawyer

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Gilmartin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arjun Garg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Miller (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.30
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.60
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jacob Sherwood

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Moss (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 21:79

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joe Sturwold (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.38
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.27
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Dan Eckstein

dropped • 2-3-1

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Miranda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Julio Vazquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maeve Kuwamura-Corvacchioli (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Draw	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Michael Moss

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Sherwood (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tanner Montgomery (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ajit Perla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Charles Gilbert (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs John Miranda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.58
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Matt Garner

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Martinez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dayton Blair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.98
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.86
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Ryan Dunbar

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Chen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Wright (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.