Puffin, Hightail
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 8-4-0
42%
Meta
+3.0
Perf
5.9
Surp
4.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dan Eckstein (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
Round 5: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 22:78
Round 11: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Gullach (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Shawn Walker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Wolverton (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Keenan Humphrey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Randall Robinson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Steve Halloran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Sexton (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Roger Price (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Winry Owen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.