Calling: Kansas City 2025 - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

24 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Connor Bryant

3rd • 11-3-0

79%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

6.5

Surp

5.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jared Contaldi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kamerin Points (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Theodore Raitzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.31
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.50
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.55
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R13	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.72
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

CODY READY

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryan Kelly (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Randy Davis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.28
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Charlie Heavilin

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Grail Chappell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ender Hansen

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devin Simms (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jack Sweeney (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.83
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Tader Kammeyer

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ovidio Trejo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Tucker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.26
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.77

Luke Harris

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Kilgore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Walker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Riley Lont (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Micheal Porter

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roger Price (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Harechmak (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shane Martin (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul Martinez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Sean Baker

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mason Herschberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Romero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dayton Blair (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christian Ugaban (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aidan Kwasneski (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.40
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Chris Dewey

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Cussimanio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chase Feaster (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Thompson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Maeve Kuwamura-Corvacchioli (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Ryan Jarvis

dropped • 0-7-0

29%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ender Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Riley Akers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Chen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Hansen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Juan Gutierrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Austin Henry

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tho Bui (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Musgrove (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jameon Delp (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lauren Stobbe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Bryan Kelly

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Abel Marquez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chandler Bushnell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.46
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.87
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jacob Baugh

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jude Cornett (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Abdul Mousa

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs gabriel ebady (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mike Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.97
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Joseph Davis

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Casey Schiller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ray Kruse (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chuck Ford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aziel Aguilar (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

Lauren Stobbe

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.29
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Fernandez

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Redington (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Trent Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Addison Woodward-Parrish (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Nicholas Miller

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aidan Volden (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mason Herschberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Harris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jameon Delp

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Gohl

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mitchell Gullach (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Dryer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Colton Branch

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rogelio Marroquin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Christopher Wynn

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Drew Carrick (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Pfaffenback (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Owen Bitting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Dustin De Loach

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mike Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chase Feaster (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Nicholas Geldrich

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Katherine Merwin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.