Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Calling: Kansas City 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
27 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 9-3-0
58%
Meta
+3.3
Perf
5.3
Surp
4.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Illuvial Arnett (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Justin Liwag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs brynn nieboer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 9-3-0
50%
Meta
+3.7
Perf
5.8
Surp
4.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Round 9: Win vs Austin Redington (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tho Bui (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
dropped • 9-3-0
67%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
5.2
Surp
4.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lauren Stobbe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Luke Hillard (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Round 11: Win vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 8-4-0
50%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
5.3
Surp
5.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Dandikar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marshel Halliday (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
Round 8: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Austin Henson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 8-4-0
75%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.9
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jarron Idleman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dylan Arnold (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Park (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mike Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Rob Harechmak (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 83:17
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 8-4-0
50%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Donovan Mitchell (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 7-5-0
92%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
5.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Skylar Kilgore (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mitchell Gullach (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Josef Mendez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 11: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
92% (11/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 6-6-0
92%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
5.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trent Willman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Max McLean (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Johnathan Carrillo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 8: Loss vs Colin Eriksen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Simon Murphy (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
92% (11/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (6.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 6-4-0
80%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ray Kruse (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Charlie Heavilin (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Carlos Romero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Round 10: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 5-5-0
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
4.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael Serpa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Swazey Sexton (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
60% (6/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 5-4-0
56%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kamerin Points (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Liwag (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Bowar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Round 7: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs ray lahann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ashlyn Carrick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Edwards (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Winry Owen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Lawton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Dasher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matt Noelker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jacques Carlson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs brynn nieboer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Record (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Wemhoff (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Noah Fogle (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Grant Rockefeller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Phillip Spader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kolby Daily (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Barta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 5: Win vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Barrett Goss (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Elliott (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler McMurray (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Trent Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Pfaffenback (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sage Husanu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs CODY READY (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mason Herschberg (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs James Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Bridges (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Loss vs Chandler To (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Chen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Flavin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Round 6: Win vs Aziel Aguilar (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Berg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Karl Kraemer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Payton Miles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
29%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs John Milner (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Serpa (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ivy Hansen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Davis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Henry Gomez (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 83:17
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Round 3: Loss vs Randall Sims (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs John Tucker (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ender Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Myles Rightmire (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Riley Lont (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sophia Claire (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
83%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs David Hines (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Romero (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Parker Lahann (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs John Zapata (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Round 2: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.