Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Kansas City 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ajit Perla (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Abegail Tittle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Clinton Jeffers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.9
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Henry Gomez (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs Wesley Cole (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Noah Ford (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Stew Fraser (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.8
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Julio Vazquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
Round 2: Loss vs Lauren Stobbe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mike Murray (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Round 5: Win vs David Dandikar (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jason Willhite (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathan Beni (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Robert Raley (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Johnathan Carrillo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paul Martinez (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-2
43%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Gabriel Chen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colton Branch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Roger Jr. (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Draw |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Draw |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charles Gilbert (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Scott Cook (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Noah Fogle (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ryan Jarvis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Codi Barnett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Chen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Ford (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Beihn (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 6: Win vs Maeve Kuwamura-Corvacchioli (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Rogelio Marroquin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Roark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Fiorendino (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Vargas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Marshall (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steve Halloran (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stew Fraser (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87
Round 4: Loss vs William Pearlman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Grail Chappell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs John Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.