Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Kansas City 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kyle Wright

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grant Emery (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.29
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Asa Burke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trent Willman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Win	✗	0.82	0.36
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Alexander Heger

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Hyneman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Ray Kruse

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arivae Chol (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 31:69

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Davis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.