Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Kansas City 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kyle Wright

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Grant Emery (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Steve Halloran

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Asa Burke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trent Willman (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Yunck (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Wray (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.97

Alexander Heger

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Hyneman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Ray Kruse

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arivae Chol (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Davis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.