Arakni, Marionette
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
5.8
Surp
3.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Antonio Cussimanio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kirby Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dylan Deitz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Round 12: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 7-5-0
50%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
5.6
Surp
2.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Bracken (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 6-6-0
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
6.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Geldrich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Loberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Riley Lont (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Hines (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Phillip Spader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ender Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John-David Cottrell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kirby Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Roark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34
Round 7: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Loss vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Derrick Schwarz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Round 7: Loss vs Payton Miles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Shehan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Blake Freeman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ash Buck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Loss vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Payton Miles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Kelly (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Juan Gutierrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Logan Reinert (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Keithline (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chance Hensley (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Tamren Cardwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.