Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Kansas City 2025
Arakni, Marionette
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 7-5-0
42%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
6.1
Surp
4.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Evans (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Antonio Cussimanio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Win vs Kirby Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dylan Deitz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Indie Hansen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Round 12: Loss vs Emery Powell (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
6.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 7-5-0
58%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
5.7
Surp
2.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Timothy Long (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Austin Wilson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs John Bracken (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Caleb Wangler (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jared Contaldi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
58% (7/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 6-6-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
6.3
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Geldrich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Timothy Bowar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Bodo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Brandon King (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Loss vs Dagan White (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Fraser (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Theodore Raitzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Round 10: Win vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Josh Leier (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
6.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Loberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Riley Lont (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Hines (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Phillip Spader (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ender Hansen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John-David Cottrell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Kirby Hill (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Roark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Round 7: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs James Pack (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Derrick Schwarz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Payton Miles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hakan Gunes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tader Kammeyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeremy Stockfleth (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Shehan (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Geoffrey Hunt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Cook (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Richard Moretti (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Blake Freeman (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ash Buck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Abdul Mousa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brett Shirley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tamren Cardwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Wehmer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gabriel Poynter (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hasan Abdali (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hannah Watts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Payton Miles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Kelly (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Juan Gutierrez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Branden Stepanski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Chris Francis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Logan Reinert (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Lantz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brendan Keithline (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chance Hensley (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Reuben An (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tamren Cardwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.