Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs William Weinberg (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Warner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs nicklas starland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chuck Ford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 7: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.