Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
14 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew White (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
12th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
90:10
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 88:12
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 90% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Win |
29th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Reese Sydenstricker (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
33rd • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
90:10
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs John Garcia (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 90:10
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 78:22
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 90% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
36th • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Robles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rodrigo Lopez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 78:22
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 78:22
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
39th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Evan Duda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
52nd • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
58th • 4-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 78:22
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
60th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Millar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew White (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Round 3: Win vs Trent Sipes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 69:31
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kate Phelps (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22
Round 4: Loss vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.