Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
14 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
11th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew White (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
Round 6: Loss vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
12th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Loss vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
29th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Reese Sydenstricker (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 63:37
Round 2: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
33rd • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs John Garcia (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 83:17
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
36th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Robles (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 69:31
Round 2: Loss vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rodrigo Lopez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
39th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Evan Duda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
52nd • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
Round 7: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
58th • 4-4-0
88%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
Round 7: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
60th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Millar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew White (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 5: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Trent Sipes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 39:61
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kate Phelps (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
Round 4: Loss vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.