Dash I/O at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Dash I/O
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
37th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luke Shields (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wes Schaff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
40th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ronny Khuri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Reichert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
Round 5: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
45th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 57:43
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Andersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
64th • 4-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Millar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Terpstra (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shane Gabel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rodrigo Lopez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 28:72
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Logan Barnes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.