Dash I/O at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Dash I/O
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
37th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luke Shields (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Wes Schaff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
Round 5: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
40th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.8
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ronny Khuri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Reichert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 6: Win vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
45th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.7
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 82:18
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Bryan Andersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
64th • 4-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Millar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Terpstra (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
Round 7: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (4.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shane Gabel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 82:18
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rodrigo Lopez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67
Round 2: Win vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Logan Barnes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Round 5: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
80%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 33:67
Round 2: Win vs Samuel-Shane Cooper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Chan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.