Battle Hardened Chicago 2025 - Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty (CC)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Steven Caraher

19th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 78:22

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.31
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Tyler Kanofsky

92nd • 1-7-0

62%

Meta

-3.3

Perf

5.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trent Sipes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

85:15

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Pritchard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shane Gabel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Win	✗	0.85	1.38
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Nathaniel Brower

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryan Heffner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Van Winkle (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reese Sydenstricker (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Chandler (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.