Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
24th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
30th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dalton Nida (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
72nd • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
4.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gavin Nord (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 8: Loss vs Martin Bantchev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
89th • 2-6-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trent Sipes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Thao Lopez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Round 3: Win vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Ackley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.