Arakni, Marionette
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
24th • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christopher Montes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
Round 2: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
30th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dalton Nida (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Grant Huddleston (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
72nd • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Gavin Nord (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Loss vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
Round 8: Loss vs Martin Bantchev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
89th • 2-6-0
38%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Trent Sipes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Hoffman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 41:59
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 78:22
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Thao Lopez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Ackley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.