Katsu, the Wanderer at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Katsu, the Wanderer
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Christopher Logel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.