Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

34th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tylor Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bradley Jamrozik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Wes Schaff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Dash I/O

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Chris Dewey (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.92
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.10
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.23
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

63rd • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rick Folks (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew White (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Prism, Awakener of Sol

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37

Fang, Dracai of Blades

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 29:71

Dash I/O

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.88
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.53

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.