Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Prism, Awakener of Sol
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Doggett (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Harrison Pruitt (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs wilson guo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs David Reitenbach (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
26th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Johnson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
77th • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Leonardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Wesley Robinson (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
Round 8: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 85% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ronny Khuri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony Domalakes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 52:48
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Wier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Millar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Josh Hill (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thao Lopez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63
Round 5: Win vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.