Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-3-0
70%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
5.0
Surp
3.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Keesling (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 8: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
R9
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
5th • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.4
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carl Handley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 81:19
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
14th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.4
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 75% | Win |
18th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Youngjin Ki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
25th • 5-3-0
75%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Leonardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gavin Nord (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jordan Vonderwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
53rd • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 83:17
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Logel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 83:17
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 5: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 20:80
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
57th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
85:15
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13
85:15
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Pritchard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 87:13
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
80th • 3-5-0
75%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Round 4: Loss vs Youngjin Ki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Thao Lopez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 81:19
Round 8: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Ackley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Zumwalt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 2: Loss vs Ciara McDonnell (Dash I/O) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew White (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ronny Khuri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.