Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
12 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
4.5
Surp
2.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Keesling (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
Round 5: Win vs Arjun Garg (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 8: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
75:25
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (5/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
5th • 6-3-0
22%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
4.9
Surp
3.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Carl Handley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs April May (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 6: Win vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
14th • 6-2-0
38%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dan Mui (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Brandon Ejupi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
18th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Youngjin Ki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 67:33
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Win vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lee Kimball (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Win |
25th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Leonardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sean Gray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 14:86
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gavin Nord (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jordan Vonderwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 7: Win vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
53rd • 4-4-0
75%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Fagalde (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christopher Logel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andre Thomas (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Round 5: Loss vs Kristopher Kraemer (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 58:42
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
57th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Gagliardi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Collins-Dowden (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Pritchard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
80th • 3-5-0
75%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
4.1
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
Round 4: Loss vs Youngjin Ki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Thao Lopez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 76:24
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24
Round 8: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs David Ackley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mason O'Mara (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Loss vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Evan Zumwalt (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Ciara McDonnell (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrew White (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ronny Khuri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 42:58
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.