Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brandon Robinson

5th • 7-2-0

11%

Meta

+3.9

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bea Budnik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Schoenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Griffin Arnold (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yasunari Sakuma (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Cavin Saravanan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

11% (1/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.23
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.26
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.92
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.64
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.61
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Evan Duda

67th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Logel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leah Panitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Madelyn Machado (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.36
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.46
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Summer Giles

dropped • 1-5-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Bantchev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Kim (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.