Valda, Seismic Impact at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025

Valda, Seismic Impact

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam Miller

71st • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ciara McDonnell (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeffrey Mazar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Van Winkle (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jo Burch (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Evan Duda (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.07
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Garcia

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Mena (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Domalakes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Logel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Luke Shields

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Angel Fernandez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Leah Panitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 22:78

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Bantchev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.