Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
76th • 3-5-0
88%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
4.2
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Martin Bantchev (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Brower (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Miller (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Cam Dayton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Wes Schaff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
83rd • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Wier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Vonderwell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs David Ackley (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
Round 5: Loss vs Trevor Galligan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Brower (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-6-0
57%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ben Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hamilton Summer (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Trevor White (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Trent Sipes (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Moiz Hasan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Leimenstoll (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Leah Panitz (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 29:71
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
0.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Edward Schoenberg (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 17:83
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 18:82
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.