Battle Hardened Chicago 2025 - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

TJ Saenz

86th • 2-6-0

38%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Lopez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Samuel Van Winkle (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.44
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Trevor White

87th • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shane Gabel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Reichert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.06
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Kate Phelps

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Carl Handley

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.