Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

86th • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Henderson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

Jarl Vetreiði

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Lopez (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R7

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Samuel Van Winkle (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R8

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

87th • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

Prism, Awakener of Sol

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Herren (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shane Gabel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Reichert (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Mitchell (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Jones (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Fang, Dracai of Blades

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.27
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

Jarl Vetreiði

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Agosto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 14:86

Jarl Vetreiði

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Marefke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Bruner (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carter Hulse (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.