Jarl Vetreiði at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
81st • 3-4-1
62%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kate Phelps (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
Round 8: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kate Phelps (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Nord (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 22:78
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 20:80
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bryan Andersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.