Jarl Vetreiði at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
81st • 3-4-1
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Christopher Van Meter (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Darin Voight (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kate Phelps (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Summer Giles (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Round 8: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kate Phelps (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Duane Flier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vivien Khamis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Martinez (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Amy Hazel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Johnson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Patrick Donnan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Nord (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 4: Loss vs Robert Marsack (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28
Round 2: Loss vs TJ Saenz (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Logan King (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Shen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 33:67
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Schmidt (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bryan Andersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adam Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Birch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.