Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened Chicago 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
54th • 4-3-1
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony Domalakes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Christopher Mena (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Terpstra (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 23:77
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Wes Schaff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Draw |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
49th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.6
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Cassidy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 81:19
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ciara McDonnell (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Reese Sydenstricker (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Austin Scherer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
69th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ronny Khuri (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Wes Schaff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Werner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Kanofsky (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrew Gullicks (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jeffery Frahm (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
70th • 4-4-0
38%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Scherer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Baar (Dash I/O) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joseph Freeh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Leonardo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Logan May (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thao Lopez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Trent Lewis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas Bray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Elias Holter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Caden Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryan Andersen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Myles Rightmire (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 13:87
Round 5: Loss vs Theodore Maximiuk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs May Hayden (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrew White (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs William Payne (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jonathon Harty (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Guinn (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.